{"id":19009,"date":"2023-03-10T11:21:23","date_gmt":"2023-03-10T04:21:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/?p=19009"},"modified":"2023-07-25T11:48:54","modified_gmt":"2023-07-25T04:48:54","slug":"fed-se-tang-lai-suat-cho-den-khi-kinh-te-my-suy-thoai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/fed-se-tang-lai-suat-cho-den-khi-kinh-te-my-suy-thoai\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 suy tho\u00e1i?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n
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\n 1\/5 - (1 vote) <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

\u201cS\u1ebd ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 h\u1ed3i k\u1ebft n\u00e0o cho chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y ch\u1eebng n\u00e0o Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Jerome Powell c\u00f2n ch\u01b0a g\u00e2y ra m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1”…<\/p>\n

Xem th\u00eam: Suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 g\u00ec? N\u00ean \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 g\u00ec trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n kinh t\u1ebf suy tho\u00e1i?<\/a><\/p>\n

C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (Fed) kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1eebng chu k\u1ef3 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ch\u1eebng n\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u00f2n ch\u01b0a r\u01a1i v\u00e0o suy tho\u00e1i – theo chuy\u00ean gia kinh t\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ec1 M\u1ef9 c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n TS Lombard, \u00f4ng Steven Blitz.<\/p>\n

\u201cS\u1ebd ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t h\u1ed3i k\u1ebft n\u00e0o cho chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y ch\u1eebng n\u00e0o Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Jerome Powell c\u00f2n ch\u01b0a g\u00e2y ra m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1, v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p t\u0103ng. Ch\u1ec9 t\u1edbi l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 Fed m\u1edbi d\u1eebng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u201d, \u00f4ng Blitz n\u00f3i trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi ph\u1ecfng v\u1ea5n h\u00e3ng tin CNBC.<\/p>\n

V\u1ecb chuy\u00ean gia nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng Fed \u0111ang thi\u1ebfu r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 n\u1eb1m \u1edf vi\u1ec7c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 ch\u01b0a gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c. \u201cH\u1ecd ch\u01b0a bi\u1ebft l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e2u, v\u00ec h\u1ecd ch\u1eb3ng bi\u1ebft l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t bao gi\u1edd m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u1ed1ng ch\u1ebf n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf\u201d, \u00f4ng Blitz n\u00f3i.<\/p>\n

Trong hai bu\u1ed5i \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y th\u1ee9 Ba v\u00e0 th\u1ee9 T\u01b0, \u00f4ng Powell n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn trong nh\u1eefng tu\u1ea7n g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y cho th\u1ea5y \u201cm\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ed1i \u0111a c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd cao h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1.<\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ti\u1ebfp theo c\u1ee7a U\u1ef7 ban Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edf Li\u00ean bang (FOMC) – b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn ra quy\u1ebft s\u00e1ch trong Fed – s\u1ebd di\u1ec5n ra v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 21-22\/3. Cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, v\u00ec nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00e1ng n\u00f3ng l\u00f2ng ch\u1edd xem li\u1ec7u Fed s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u1edbi b\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ea3y 0,25 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m hay 0,5 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m.<\/p>\n

V\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t Fed s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh \u1edf m\u1ee9c 5,1%. Nh\u01b0ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Goldman Sachs n\u00e2ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Fed l\u00ean 5,5-5,75% v\u00e0o h\u00f4m th\u1ee9 Ba tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y, sau bu\u1ed5i \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng Powell, ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh qua d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai do CME Group cung c\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n

\u201cS\u1ebd c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i, v\u00e0 Fed s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00ean t\u1edbi m\u1ee9c m\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p l\u00ean \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 4,5%. T\u00f4i \u0111o\u00e1n Fed ch\u1ec9 d\u1eebng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1edf m\u1ee9c 5,5%\u201d, \u00f4ng Blitz n\u00f3i.<\/p>\n

\"ch\u1ee7
Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Jerome Powell trong cu\u1ed9c \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u1ea7n t\u1ea1i Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7n M\u1ef9 h\u00f4m 7\/3 – \u1ea2nh: Reuters.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

V\u1ecb chuy\u00ean gia l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf, th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t sa th\u1ea3i l\u1edbn trong ng\u00e0nh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, c\u00f9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n ch\u1eefng l\u1ea1i. \u00d4ng cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng suy y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9, \u201cs\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m thanh kho\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng\u201d khi c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m cho vay c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eafp x\u1ea3y \u0111\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n

\u201cN\u1ebfu suy tho\u00e1i x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa n\u0103m nay, th\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea1i s\u1ebd l\u00e0 5,5%. C\u00f2n n\u1ebfu n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u1eabn gi\u1eef \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u v\u1eabn m\u1ea1nh, Fed s\u1ebd c\u00f2n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n n\u1eefa, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 6,5% \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u\u201d, \u00f4ng Blitz nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

\u201c\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro m\u00e0 n\u00f3i, c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 hay kh\u00f4ng m\u00e0 l\u00e0 l\u00fac n\u00e0o s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m. V\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng hi\u1ec7n nay c\u00e0ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd c\u00e0ng ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng cao\u201d, \u00f4ng nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n

Th\u00e1ng 1 v\u1eeba qua, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (CPI) c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng 0,5% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c ghi nh\u1eadn v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2022. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t, th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n qua vi\u1ec7c c\u00f3 th\u00eam 517.000 c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c m\u1edbi, con s\u1ed1 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t 53 n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

B\u00e1o c\u00e1o vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m th\u00e1ng 2 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c B\u1ed9 Lao \u0111\u1ed9ng M\u1ef9 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y th\u1ee9 S\u00e1u tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o CPI th\u00e1ng 2 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y th\u1ee9 Ba tu\u1ea7n t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

Trong m\u1ed9t b\u00e1o c\u00e1o v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea1i, Goldman Sachs cho r\u1eb1ng trong d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u01b0a ra sau cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 3 n\u00e0y, Fed s\u1ebd n\u00e2ng m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn th\u00eam 0,5 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u01b0a ra h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 5,5-5,75%, cho d\u00f9 FOMC c\u00f3 ch\u1ecdn n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 0,25 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m hay 0,5 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m trong cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp n\u00e0y \u0111i ch\u0103ng n\u1eefa.<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs c\u0169ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 3 s\u1ebd \u201c\u0111an xen nh\u01b0ng t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 v\u1eabn v\u1eefng\u201d, tron \u0111\u00f3 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00f5i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng, \u0111\u1eb7t ra kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Fed s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 0,5 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay v\u00ec 0,25 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP t\u1eeb c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t t\u00e0i kho\u00e1 v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 trong n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 t\u0103ng l\u00ean. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n nay l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i qu\u00e1 s\u1edbm, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i s\u1eafp x\u1ea3y \u0111\u1ebfn\u201d, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Goldman Sachs nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

\u201cCu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111ang l\u00e0 nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1ea5t cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. N\u1ebfu v\u1eady, Fed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 gi\u1eef t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i\u201d.<\/p>\n

T\u00e1c gi\u1ea3: B\u00ecnh Minh<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: VnEconomy<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Sẽ chưa có hồi kết nào cho chu kỳ tăng lãi suất này chừng nào Chủ tịch Fed Jerome Powell còn chưa gây ra một cuộc suy thoái thực sự”… Xem thêm: Suy thoái kinh tế là gì? Nên đầu tư gì trong giai đoạn kinh tế suy thoái? Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":19012,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1246],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-19009","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-kinh-te-the-gioi"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19009","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19009"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19009\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19012"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19009"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19009"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19009"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}