{"id":17686,"date":"2023-02-01T11:00:28","date_gmt":"2023-02-01T04:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/?p=17686"},"modified":"2023-07-25T13:58:14","modified_gmt":"2023-07-25T06:58:14","slug":"quan-chuc-fed-phat-tin-hieu-tam-dung-tang-lai-suat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/quan-chuc-fed-phat-tin-hieu-tam-dung-tang-lai-suat\/","title":{"rendered":"Quan ch\u1ee9c Fed ph\u00e1t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n
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\n \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

Theo c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c NHTW, Fed c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i th\u00eam s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u trong 3-6 th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang (Fed<\/a>) chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc vi\u1ec7c d\u1eebng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t sau khi cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 3 di\u1ec5n ra, n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u00eam d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t. M\u1ed1c th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng quan ch\u1ee9c c\u00f3 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn nh\u1ea5t trong FOMC, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c Christopher Waller, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 s\u1edbm \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a Fed v\u00e0o n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00eam 0,25% khi cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 2 ng\u00e0y k\u1ebft th\u00fac, l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 4,5% \u0111\u1ebfn 4,75%, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 50 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 12 v\u00e0 sau 4 l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng 0,75% li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp.<\/p>\n

Sau cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 12, c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c Fed d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn h\u1ecd s\u1ebd t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng t\u0103ng khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1edf m\u1ee9c tr\u00ean 5%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c trader tr\u00ean Ph\u1ed1 Wall l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c NHTW s\u1ebd d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t dao \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n con s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean.<\/p>\n

\"T\u1ef7
T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a Fed.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Th\u00e1ng 10, NHTW M\u1ef9 cho bi\u1ebft s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u00e1ng 10, th\u00e1ng 11 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 12 \u0111\u1ec1u cho th\u1ea5y xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n v\u00e0 l\u00e0 tin m\u1eebng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, h\u1ecd v\u1eabn c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i theo d\u00f5i th\u00eam.<\/p>\n

Trong nh\u1eefng b\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, Waller n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng \u00f4ng c\u1ea7n th\u00eam nhi\u1ec1u b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra quan \u0111i\u1ec3m Fed n\u00ean d\u1eebng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. \u00d4ng ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u: “Vi\u1ec7c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u n\u00ean t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng sau khi c\u00f3 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a 3 th\u00e1ng hay 6 th\u00e1ng. T\u1eeb kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro, th\u00ec ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn d\u1eef li\u1ec7u trong 6 th\u00e1ng.”<\/p>\n

CPI l\u00f5i \u1edf M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 2,2% trong 3 th\u00e1ng t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 12 v\u00e0 3,7% trong 6 th\u00e1ng qua. Con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c 4,4% trong 12 th\u00e1ng qua, s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 h\u00f4m th\u1ee9 S\u00e1u tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc cho th\u1ea5y.<\/p>\n

Ph\u00f3 Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Lael Brainard c\u0169ng cho bi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c NHTW xem x\u00e9t l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t 3 v\u00e0 6 th\u00e1ng.<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c k\u00e9o d\u00e0i trong 3 th\u00e1ng n\u1eefa, theo ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng Waller, th\u00ec c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 tin \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp ng\u00e0y 2 v\u00e0 3\/5. Khi \u0111\u00f3, h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 “c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7” d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a qu\u00fd I\/2023.<\/p>\n

Brett Ryan – nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ea5p cao v\u1ec1 M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i Deutsche Bank, nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh: “Th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p t\u1eeb Fed \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, NHTW ph\u1ea3i h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng nhanh v\u00e0 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y, v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u1edf t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 m\u00e0 l\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m k\u1ebft th\u00fac. Fed c\u1ea7n x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f5 khi n\u00e0o d\u1eebng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.”<\/p>\n

S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 h\u00f4m 31\/1 cho th\u1ea5y chi ph\u00ed lao \u0111\u1ed9ng (ECI) c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 – th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o v\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 ph\u00fac l\u1ee3i, t\u0103ng 1% trong qu\u00fd IV, ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c cho th\u1ea5y nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t trong 3 th\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 2023. S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u ECI qu\u00fd I\/2023 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 28\/4.<\/p>\n

Sau th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat v\u00e0 t\u0103ng n\u00f3ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i trong n\u0103m 2021, gi\u1edbi ch\u1ee9c NHTW \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh s\u1ef1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c xem x\u00e9t t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh th\u00eam v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng n\u1eefa v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ee7 c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 b\u1edbt “n\u00f3ng” v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2%.<\/p>\n

Waller c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra nh\u1eefng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e1ng m\u1eebng v\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng, cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n ra trong v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng qua. Song, \u00f4ng l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2022. \u00d4ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c n\u00eau quan \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3m m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t xu\u1ed1ng 0,25% trong tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y khi l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n

Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c Fed v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111ang thu h\u00fat s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

Julia Coronado – Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a MacroPolicy Perspectives, cho bi\u1ebft: “Th\u00e1ng 12 v\u1eabn c\u00f2n qu\u00e1 s\u1edbm \u0111\u1ec3 Fed t\u1ecf ra qu\u00e1 c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1c quan n\u00e0o. Tuy nhi\u00ean, b\u00e2y gi\u1edd, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0 khi tham gia cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp n\u00e0y, c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean \u00f4n h\u00f2a v\u00e0 c\u00f3 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m “di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u” \u0111\u1ec1u c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y h\u00e0i l\u00f2ng v\u1edbi con s\u1ed1 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n.”<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i sang “ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9” qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro, khi v\u1eabn \u0111\u1eb7t \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u r\u1ee7i ro th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t qu\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh tay.<\/p>\n

Lorie Logan – Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Dallas, cho bi\u1ebft: “Trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y, t\u00f4i tin r\u1eb1ng Fed c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1eeba linh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c v\u00e0 c\u1ea9n th\u1eadn nh\u1eefng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1eafp t\u1edbi th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh cho ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p.”<\/p>\n

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Tham kh\u1ea3o Bloomberg <\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

T\u00e1c gi\u1ea3: Chi Lan<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: Nh\u1ecbp s\u1ed1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Theo các quan chức NHTW, Fed cần theo dõi thêm số liệu trong 3-6 tháng tới để quyết định tạm dừng tăng lãi suất. Các quan chức Cục Dự trữ Liên bang (Fed) chuẩn bị cân nhắc việc dừng tăng lãi suất sau khi cuộc họp tháng 3 diễn ra, nếu có thêm dấu hiệu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":17689,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1246],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-17686","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-kinh-te-the-gioi"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17686"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17686\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infina.vn\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}